Research. Correlate.
Educate. Compare. Decide.

Quality Road fillies sold at 2YO sales, 2020–2022

Eight fillies had recorded purchases at two-year-old-in-training sales. Their lifetime results recorded in Chivalry total 60 starts, 7 wins and $324,333 in earnings.

• 7 of 8 raced (87.5%), and 4 of 8 won (50%).
• None became a stakes winner in the recorded lifetime results.
• Urban was the leading earner and the only graded-stakes-placed runner, finishing second in the Grade 3 Sweet Life Stakes.
• Average lifetime earnings were $40,542; median earnings were $34,480.

Lifetime racing results

Sorted by lifetime earnings. Record is starts–wins–seconds–thirds; these are all recorded lifetime starts, not just races during 2020–2022.

All eight are female offspring of Quality Road.

Qualifying purchases

Quality Road delivered the strongest recorded racing earnings relative to purchase price. Curlin produced the highest average earnings and stakes-winner rate, while Into Mischief supplied the only graded-stakes winner.

I used the same scope as before: fillies purchased for a positive price at two-year-old-in-training sales in 2020–2022, excluding RNAs, withdrawals, buyers listed as “Not Sold,” and general mixed/breeding-stock sales. Each horse is counted once; racing results cover its recorded lifetime, not just 2020–2022.

Side-by-side comparison

¹Unique horses that won or finished second/third in a stakes race; winners are not counted twice.

Stakes results and leading performers

Record below is starts–wins–seconds–thirds.

Which group gave the best racing value?

Quality Road: strongest earnings relative to acquisition cost

For every $1 spent purchasing the group, recorded lifetime earnings were:

• Quality Road: $0.287
• Curlin: $0.203
• Into Mischief: $0.200

Quality Road’s ratio was approximately 42% higher than Curlin’s and 43% higher than Into Mischief’s. It also led on the median individual earnings-to-price ratio: 25.4%, versus 14.2% for Into Mischief and 7.6% for Curlin.

Curlin: strongest stakes-winner production and average earnings

Curlin’s two stakes winners from nine purchases and $78,588 average earnings led those measures. But its substantially higher purchase prices meant those stronger absolute results did not translate into the best earnings-to-price ratio.

Into Mischief: the only graded winner and the highest winner rate

Into Mischief led in the percentage becoming winners and produced Naughty Gal, the comparison’s only graded-stakes winner. Its aggregate earnings-to-price ratio was nevertheless the lowest, narrowly behind Curlin.

Quality Road’s advantage is not consistent across price ranges. It holds most convincingly among $250,000–$499,999 purchases, where the results are spread across three fillies rather than driven by one standout. Below $100,000, Into Mischief performed better. Quality Road’s middle-price advantage rests on just one horse.

I re-queried the same 2020–2022 cohort: 8 Quality Road, 36 Into Mischief and 9 Curlin fillies, counting each qualifying purchase once. “Earnings/purchase” below means total recorded lifetime purse earnings divided by total purchase prices—not net investment ROI.

Results within purchase-price bands

“Winners” and “stakes winners” count unique horses, not wins. Average and median earnings include horses with no recorded earnings.

What the bands reveal

• Under $100,000: Into Mischief wins. Its earnings-to-price ratio was more than twice Quality Road’s, with a higher median earnings figure and winner rate.
• $100,000–$249,999: Quality Road’s lead is fragile. Its entire result is Athenais, bought for $110,000 and earning $49,270. This is not enough evidence for a broad sire advantage.
• $250,000–$499,999: Quality Road’s strongest comparison. Its average purchase price closely matches Into Mischief’s, but both average and median earnings are higher. However, Into Mischief had the higher winner rate and a graded winner; Curlin also produced a stakes winner.
• $500,000+: no Quality Road comparison is possible. Curlin clearly outperformed Into Mischief in this band.

Are standouts driving the differences?

This test removes each band’s highest-earning horse and its purchase price, then recalculates the ratio.

Quality Road’s $250,000–$499,999 result is not a one-horse phenomenon:

Conversely, its bargain-price results are overwhelmingly Princess of Ocala: the other three combined earned only $2,060 on $78,000 of purchases.

Across the entire sire groups, removing the two highest earners gives:

At equal fees, I’d narrowly prefer Sierra Leone as a long-term classic stallion prospect. At the database-listed 2026 fees—$75,000 versus $50,000—Fierceness is the more compelling value proposition, particularly for commercial breeders seeking early speed.

Neither has progeny-performance evidence yet, so this is a judgment about racing aptitude, pedigree and price—not proven sire ability.

Side-by-side

Racing records run through the November 2025 Breeders’ Cup; scratched entries are excluded.

Sierra Leone: stronger classic-pedigree foundation

His biggest advantage is the combination of Gun Runner, a Grade 1-winning dam and sustained top-level route performance.

• Sire strength: Gun Runner’s recorded progeny race score is 183.5, compared with 133.7 for City of Light. That supports the stronger established sire base, although it does not prove which son will transmit better.
• Maternal quality: Heavenly Love is a Grade 1 winner. Sierra Leone therefore has elite performance on both sides of his immediate pedigree.
• Consistency: He finished in the first three in all 14 recorded starts, including a Classic win and another Classic second. That is a stronger repeatability signal than earnings alone.
• Likely breeding emphasis: My expectation would be high-class dirt routes, stamina and sustained finishing ability.

Reservations: He was a later-developing juvenile than Fierceness and predominantly a deep closer. Race comments also document loading difficulty and drifting/lugging on some occasions. Those warrant temperament scrutiny, but they are not proof of heritable faults.

My preferred mare type: A mare with genuine speed, early maturity and a straightforward temperament, subject to physical compatibility.

Fierceness: stronger speed-and-precocity proposition

His biggest advantage is that he demonstrated elite ability at two without sacrificing ten-furlong quality later.

• Early excellence: He won on debut over six furlongs in August and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Sierra Leone’s first start and win came in November over a mile.
• Tactical speed: Fierceness could lead, press or stalk—an attractive racing profile for breeders targeting commercially desirable dirt horses.
• Range: The Travers and Pacific Classic establish that his juvenile speed was not merely short-distance precocity.
• Family reinforcement: His full brother Mentee is a Grade 3 winner; Outwork, a Grade 1 winner, is a half-brother to his dam.
• Price: His listed fee is $25,000 lower, a meaningful reduction in breeding cost before either stallion has proven runners.

Reservations: His race record was less consistent, with three finishes outside the first three. City of Light’s established progeny metrics are also weaker than Gun Runner’s in this database. Neither observation means Fierceness cannot become the better sire.

My preferred mare type: A mare needing speed and earlier maturity, with enough substance and stamina to complement him.

I’m comparing specific broodmare sires first, then grouping them into lines. I’ll keep the racing and yearling-sale samples separate: the sire’s results can guide a mating, but they don’t establish what an unproven son’s yearlings will bring.

My commercial shortlist

For a breeder selling as a yearling, I would start with:

• Sierra Leone: Tapit/Pulpit and Bernardini branches of A.P. Indy, followed by Unbridled’s Song/Empire Maker. These offer the clearest combination of Gun Runner racing evidence and yearling-market acceptance.
• Fierceness: Scat Daddy and War Front branches of Storm Cat, with Ghostzapper as a value-oriented alternative. Giant’s Causeway deserves consideration on racing evidence, but the available sales sample is too small to establish a commercial premium.

I would pay Sierra Leone’s additional $25,000 for a mare capable of producing an upper-market yearling—not simply because she belongs to a favorable sire line. Fierceness is more attractive when the mare’s page or physical limits the likely selling price.

These are parent-sire analogues, not proven nicks for their sons.

What the samples actually show

To make the racing comparison reasonably age-balanced, I used 2020–2022-born progeny of both sires, counting recorded runners and individual graded-stakes winners, rather than stakes wins.

For sales, I used 2023–2025 yearling transactions, with positive sold prices. I excluded RNA-indicated records—including records with conflicting sold/RNA labels—and null or zero prices. Prices below are medians, not averages.

The racing and sales samples are separate populations. “Profiles” means horses represented in Chivalry, not necessarily every registered foal.

Sierra Leone: evidence from Gun Runner

My interpretation:

1. Tapit is the strongest first target. It has the largest racing and sales samples here, with four graded winners and substantial commercial acceptance. I would extend the search to Pulpit-line mares, but would not assign every branch Tapit’s exact results.
2. Bernardini is the next-best balanced option. Both sides of the evidence are positive, although six runners remain a small racing sample.
3. Unbridled’s Song is a credible secondary target. Nine winners from nine runners is encouraging; four sales are not enough to forecast a reliable yearling price.
4. Empire Maker is commercially plausible, but not a demonstrated graded-stakes advantage in this cohort.
5. Distorted Humor is an individual-mare opportunity, not a statistical first choice. Two sales cannot establish a dependable premium.

Malibu Moon needs special handling. Gun Runner’s results are attractive, but Sierra Leone is already out of a Malibu Moon mare. Breeding him to a Malibu Moon daughter produces 3×2 Malibu Moon in the foal. I would not reproduce that cross automatically just because Gun Runner succeeded with it.

Fierceness: evidence from City of Light

My interpretation:

1. Scat Daddy is my first commercial screen, particularly for a mare with a strong producing family. Five winners from five runners and the highest median among these City of Light crosses are encouraging—but three sales and no graded winners make this a tentative preference.
2. War Front offers somewhat broader sales support, plus seven winners from nine runners. The evidence supports a workable commercial mating, not a proven elite nick.
3. Ghostzapper is a sensible value option. Six winners from six runners is useful evidence of racing functionality, but three sales at a $100,000 median do not establish high-end demand.
4. Giant’s Causeway has the better-sized racing sample, including a graded winner. With only one qualifying yearling sale, I would choose on the mare’s page and physical rather than a claimed market premium.
5. Tapit is not an automatic first choice for Fierceness. In this cohort, City of Light–Tapit has weaker racing and sales evidence than Gun Runner–Tapit.

The Stay Thirsty result is particularly easy to overread: Fierceness and his full brother Mentee supply the two graded winners. That is concentrated success from one mating, not two independent mare families. Fierceness himself is out of a Stay Thirsty mare, so using a Stay Thirsty daughter would also create 3×2 Stay Thirsty.

Where Sierra Leone earns the additional $25,000

Most defensible: a high-quality Tapit or Bernardini mare

I would lean Sierra Leone when the mare has:

• A strong immediate family or an established production record;
• The physical quality to produce an upper-book yearling;
• Enough speed and maturity to complement his route-oriented racing profile;
• A realistic chance of attracting buyers seeking a classic dirt prospect.

The parent-sire medians illustrate the market distinction:

These differences do not predict Sierra Leone–Fierceness price differences. Gun Runner and City of Light differ in established reputation, fees, mare quality and sale placement. Nevertheless, the Tapit and Bernardini results provide a stronger commercial rationale for paying for Sierra Leone than pedigree fashion alone.

Where Fierceness offers better value

I would lean Fierceness for:

• A good Scat Daddy, War Front or Ghostzapper mare where his juvenile achievement and tactical speed fit the intended buyer;
• A mare whose page suggests a middle-market rather than elite yearling;
• A mating where Sierra Leone’s extra fee would consume too much of the expected margin;
• A mare needing earlier maturity, provided the physical match is favorable.

At a hypothetical $150,000 selling price, the fees alone represent 50% of gross for Sierra Leone versus 33% for Fierceness, before raising costs and selling expenses. That makes the premium difficult to justify without a credible uplift in price or sale probability.

With an illustrative 5% selling commission, Sierra Leone needs approximately $26,300 more gross sale price merely to recover the extra $25,000 fee. That is a break-even calculation—not compensation for the additional capital risk.

Thorpedo Anna’s strongest proven distance was 1⅛ miles (9 furlongs)—the best combination of repeated wins, Grade 1 success, and average speed rating.

Her Chivalry record through October 5, 2025, excluding scratches:

Where she performed best

• Best sustained results: 9 furlongs. She won the Kentucky Oaks, Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks, Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and Personal Ensign—all Grade 1s—plus the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis. Her only defeat at the distance was the 2025 Spinster.
• Highest single speed rating: 10 furlongs. Her 112 came when finishing second by 0.1 length in the 2024 Travers. That was an excellent performance, but one start is too little to establish 1¼ miles as her optimum.
• Strong, but less consistent: 8½ furlongs. Four wins from six starts, including the Cotillion and Apple Blossom, with a second in the Golden Rod and seventh in the La Troienne.

Yes—the Travers second has the strongest claim to being Thorpedo Anna’s best performance in terms of ability demonstrated. Her Distaff was the more decisive championship victory, but the Travers combined her career-high speed rating with exceptional opposition.

The three performances

Speed ratings below are the ratings stored in Chivalry, not identified here as Beyer figures.

Why the Travers gets the edge

1. It was her fastest measured effort.

The 112 was her highest speed rating in the available career record—five points above the Distaff and 17 above the Oaks. She received the same rounded rating as winner Fierceness, with Sierra Leone earning 109 in third.

2. The opposition was unusually strong.

• Fierceness already had wins in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Florida Derby and Jim Dandy.
• Sierra Leone was the Blue Grass winner and subsequently won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That later result reinforces the quality of the Travers field, although it was not an established credential on Travers day.
• Dornoch entered as the Belmont and Haskell winner.

Anna finished 1¾ lengths ahead of Sierra Leone and 8¼ ahead of Dornoch, missing Fierceness by only a head. That is arguably more revealing of elite ability than a wide win against less demanding opposition.

Important qualification: she carried 121 pounds versus the colts’ 126. It was an outstanding performance under the race’s weight conditions, not proof that she would have beaten them at equal weights.

How the wins compare

Kentucky Oaks: her clearest display of superiority over her own age-and-sex division.

She beat Just F Y I, already a dual Grade 1 winner, by 4¾ lengths in a 14-runner field. Other opponents included Ashland winner Leslie’s Rose and future Grade 1 winners Ways and Means and Power Squeeze. But those credentials should not obscure their performances that day: the runner-up rated 87, and several accomplished fillies ran poorly. The sloppy going also complicates a simple comparison with the two fast-track races.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff: the strongest blend of speed, dominance and a major victory.

Her 107 comfortably exceeded the Oaks figure. She defeated older Raging Sea, the Personal Ensign winner, who rated 103, with Grade 1 winner Candied another 3¾ lengths back in third. The chart comment—“cleared at will, held”—supports an authoritative win rather than a desperate finish. Still, the principal opposition was less formidable than the Travers trio.